STRATEGIC RIPPLE EFFECT ON INDO-PAK RELATIONS
China-India-Pakistan region is very unique region as compared to rest of the world. It is the only region in the world where a nuclear state shares border with at-least another two other nuclear states. Each of these 3 countries have direct or indirect access to Indian Ocean which is most important sea route of the world. Not only this, every nuclear state share border with at-least another hostile nuclear state. This makes this region very sensitive and competitive in Political and Strategic terms. On the other hand, USA can not be taken out of this equation. USA does not only have huge stake in this region but also is politically, economically and militarily active in this region to protect its interest. USA inclusion in the already imbalanced equation of this region further creates delicacy in the fragile situation of the region.It also leads this region into a Strategic Ripple Effect where actions of one country compel at-least one other country to take stronger counter-action. Fact that all of these are nuclear armed countries should be kept in mind while analyzing situation of this region.
The equation we developed is very unique and very complicated because all of these countries can be regarded as friends and foes at the same time. China maintains strong economic ties with USA, India and Pakistan but have Political tensions with India and Political, Economic tensions with USA. India have strong political and economic ties with USA and China but have tensions over land and sea border with China. Pakistan is considered an ally of China and USA but its relations with USA can not be trusted. India and Pakistan are the only countries having virtually no relationship at this time. Pakistan and China can be placed on one side of the equation while USA and India on the other side. Another interesting aspect of this equation is that no two variables can be considered equal to each other. Although China is a very strong economic and military power but it is still no match for USA. Similar is the case with India and Pakistan. Pakistan can be considered at the bottom of the list in terms of Economy and Military terms but in no means less important in Geo-Political terms. The center of gravity for USA, China and India is their Economic and Military but in case of Pakistan, it is Strategic location and its nuclear deterrent.
Below is a short overview of each of these countries in Economic and Military terms.(as per 2019)
- GDP: 21,439.5 billion USD (1st in the world)
- Defense Budget: 732.0 billion USD (1st in the world)
- GDP: 14,140.2 billion USD (2nd in the world)
- Defense Budget: 261.0 billion USD (2nd in the world)
- GDP: 2,935.6 billion USD (5th in the world)
- Defense Budget: 71.1 billion USD (3rd in the world)
- GDP: 284.2 billion USD (42nd in the world)
- Defense Budget: 11.4 billion USD (24th in the world)
Under these unbalanced situation relationships of India and Pakistan are of special consideration. As with other states there is a huge economic and military difference among both competitors but main difference in Indo-Pak competition is that their centers of gravity are different than each other.
Center of gravity of India lies in its Economy and Military Strength while Pakistan uses its location in the region and its nuclear deterrence as its center of gravity.
Pakistan’s location gives her an importance in regional and in some cases world affairs while her nuclear deterrence ensures defense of its territory. Importance of its location can be assessed from the fact that Pakistan was main facilitator of very important US-Taliban deal while putting a much stronger India as mere observer. Indo-Pak relations are often viewed independently but in fact behavior of these countries hugely depends upon US-China-India-Pakistan equation. Decisions relating to Defense, Economy and Politics made by India and Pakistan are greatly derived by actions of USA and China. A new ICBM tested by China not only produces counter-defensive actions in USA but also in India. India will increase its defense capability to protect itself from China’s increased threat. This increase in India’s capability will set suspicions in Pakistan and will move to increase conventional and un-conventional defense capability. A decision by USA to send fleet into South China sea or Indian Ocean will threat China’s interest and it will react by increasing its naval presence in the respective region to counter USA. India getting alerted from China’s naval action will build up its naval capability and increase its presence in Indian Ocean. This will produce threat to Pakistan’s naval border and it will respond by increasing its own presence in the Indian Ocean. A real example of this scenario can be found in the form of Chinese access to Gwadar Port under CPEC and India’s increasing spending on its navy. Another scenario can be imagined when Pakistan will reduce its presence on Pak-Afghan border after US withdrawal from Afghanistan. This will enable Pakistan to focus on its eastern border in a better way. This will obviously produce reaction from India and China will respond accordingly to India’s reaction. Although China’s steps taken in perspective of Indo-Pak relations do not create a response from USA in most cases as these are regional actions. But steps of USA taken for China produce respective response from India and Pakistan.
Indo-Pakistan relations are different than other competitors in another way because both countries have different definition of winning.
India pursues a “Total Victory” or “Conditional Victory” as winning while Pakistan mainly follows “Denial of Victory” as its definition of winning. This produces complexity in Political and Military interactions between these countries. There are many situations when both sides have claimed victory in an engagement.
Neither side can be wronged because both sides have different victory definitions. First step of Strategy is defining “Ends” part of Ends-Ways-Means list where “Ends” mean what is the objective of strategy. Pakistan and India view “Ends” differently although they take somewhat similar approach on “Ways” part. India have huge edge over Pakistan when talking in terms of Conventional Military, Economic Power and to some extent Diplomatic Power as well. This Indian approach suits its strategy of “Total Victory” or “Conditional Victory”. Pakistan have very small conventional military power as compared to India but Pakistan’s main strategic weapon is its nuclear deterrence which complements its strategy of “Denial of Victory”. Importance of regular military of Pakistan can not be denied. It is the first line of defense of Pakistan and gives Pakistan an alternative to achieve its strategic object. This can be seen in Indo-Pak engagement of Feb 2019 when Pakistan had successfully countered Indian conventional military action through its own counterpart.
Pakistan’s current economic condition and COVID-19 situation leaves very little room for her to maintain Balance of Power in the region. But Pakistan has very little choice otherwise. India is the only element in Pakistan’ Security Threat Matrix which poses both Direct and Indirect threat. Hence Pakistan has to walk on very tight rope where it needs to stabilize its economy on one hand but also has to maintain its position in USA-China-India-Pakistan equation. Both Economic and Defensive power will help Pakistan to maintain this position but Defensive factor is both urgent and important and cannot be overlooked. At the same moment Economic factor is both important and critical. While defensive matters are directly factor of national security, economic matters are indirect factor of national security at the same.
